Archive for the ‘Joanne Nova’ Category

Hot Spot 2 – Tropospheric Warming Continues

February 11, 2013

Hotspot Found!

… by Nova. She just didn’t realise it.

Often you will hear Joanne Nova comment about the “missing hotspot” as if  this were evidence against global warming. It’s not. This has been addressed numerous times (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

Here we examine each of her posts (tagged as Hot Spot) and explain why they are incorrect or misleading.

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Oh, that Heatwave? It could be Aliens!

January 28, 2013

Nova repeats her strawman argument that the recent heatwave is not a sign of global warming.

Climate Scientists go to pains these days to explain that you cannot attribute one weather extreme on global warming, but you will see a higher number of heatwaves as the background climate becomes hotter.

In Australia, we are now breaking hot records three times more often than cold records. It’s simply more likely for heatwave, such as the January one to occur.

Nova doesn’t get math, so instead rambles out 8 “Nova reasons” why the recent heatwave is not because of global warming.

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Alice – It’s unusual

January 18, 2013

Joanne Nova tries to reinforce her idea that the 2013 heatwave is nothing special … by listing just one station’s data (huh?) and by not showing 2013 in her graph. Here’s how the graph would appear with the first 17 days of this year included.

Alice

Alice Spring Average Max January temps including the first 17 days of this year.

Nothing special – aside from it being the highest average maximum temp (so far). Whilst this picture will change with future data, it’s not possible, from the data, to suggest that the current January heatwave is not unusual. This is not the only problem with Nova’s argument.

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What Heatwave?

January 15, 2013

Australia recently endured it’s warmest day ever and a heatwave that covered the country. The BOM released a statement with some basic statistics.

For September to December (i.e. the last four months of 2012) the average Australian maximum temperature was the highest on record with a national anomaly of +1.61 °C, slightly ahead of the previous record of 1.60 °C set in 2002 (national records go back to 1910).

Australia set a new record for the highest national area-average temperature, recording 40.33 °C and surpassing the previous record set on 21 December 1972 (40.17 °C). To date (data up to the 8 January 2013) the national area-average for each of the first 8 days of 2013 have been in the top 20 hottest days on record, with 8 January the third hottest on record and the first time 7 consecutive days over 39 °C has ever been recorded for Australia.

Australian National Record

Australian National Record. Any number of days around this period show a similar wide coverage of very hot temperatures.

Joanne Nova responds by saying there’s nothing special going on. That’s climate denial for you.

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2 Million Years Ago

January 3, 2013

In yet another poor attempt at a strawman argument, Nova claims that “The Climate Deniers are those who pretend the climate has always been the same.”. A very silly statement since you will not find one single climate scientist that believes climate has always remained the same.

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Nova Lacks Evidence

January 1, 2013

Joanne Nova claims that Global Warming has been disproved and lists 9 “Major Flaws” – or so she says.

  1. The missing heat is not in the ocean.
  2. Satellites show a warmer Earth is releasing extra energy to space.
  3. The models get core assumptions wrong – the hot spot is missing.
  4. Clouds cool the planet as it warms.
  5. The models are wrong on a local, regional, or continental scale.
  6. Eight different methods suggest a climate sensitivity of 0.4°C.
  7. Has CO2 warmed the planet at all in the last 50 years? It’s harder to tell than you think.
  8. Even if we assume it’s warmed since 1979, and assume that it was all CO2, if so, feedbacks are zero — disaster averted.
  9. It was as warm or warmer 1000 years ago. Models can’t explain that. It wasn’t CO2.  The models can’t predict past episodes of warming, so why would they predict future ones?

It’s the usual stuff from Nova, so lets take a quick look at why Nova is wrong on all nine points.

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65 Million Years

December 20, 2012

Joanne Nova says our current “record heatwave” is far cooler than normal.

Of course she is talking about a time when dinosaurs roamed the Earth and our distant ancestor hadn’t even evolved. The planet and the life on it now are quite different – something climate scientists are well aware of.

Nova continues …

But, in terms of homo sapiens civilization, things are cooler than usual, and appear to be cooling.

No they’re not. Nova fails to get the basic facts right.

Homo Sapiens evolved about 250,000 years ago, during a glacial period when temps were several degrees colder. Since then the planet warmed, cooled and warmed again and on larger timescales where the rate of temperature change was far slower than rate of warming expected over the next century.

Only in the last few thousand years, when temperatures have been relatively stable, have homo sapiens flourished.

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Sea Level Rise – A global conspiracy unfolds – or not

December 11, 2012

Science should be unbiased and supported by the evidence alone, devoid of all politics. The source of Nils-Axel Mörner’s latest self-published “paper” is the “Centre for Democracy and Independence“. The aim is clear; a politically motived piece attempting to discredit sea level rise.

For sea level NOT to be rising would require that the ocean is NOT warming, that glaciers are NOT melting, that subsequent data from Jason1 & Jason2 satellites are also being tampered with, gravity data from Grace is also being modified, along with hundreds of tidal gauges all in a concerted effort to fool people. This is either a conspiracy bigger than anythig this planet has seen before, or it’s complete utter bullshit.

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Nova’s Dryspot

December 7, 2012

Recent research by Fasullo and Trenberth (covered here by SkS) showed that climate models that do a better job at reproducing observations of humidity, are also forecasting a higher sensitivity (greater warming).

Models that better simulate humidity near the infamous hotspot that Nova harps on about, suggest that the warming will be at the higher end of current estimates.

Joanne Nova wants nothing more than to discredit the models, and finds opportunity in John Christy’s blog post. Yeah it’s not peer-reviewed science, of course, but let’s take a look anyway at Christy’s folly.

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Moral indignation is jealousy with a halo

November 22, 2012

The intelligent and attractive Dr Jonica Newby presented an entire episode of Catalyst recently. Joanne Nova gets hot and bothered and responds with the usual mixture of myths, cherry picking and misrepresentation of science.

Let us ponder a few of Joanne’s comments…

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