Archive for October, 2013

Ice Sea Ice Sea – And Repeat

October 21, 2013

Models (and history) project that Nova will likely post about near record Antarctica sea ice for the next few decades at least.

Climate Scientists don’t expect Antarctic to behave the same way as the Arctic. Here’s the projection for Antarctic Sea Ice with observations well within the bounds of model projections.

Antarctic Sea Ice Projection

Antarctic Sea Ice Projection. Source

Not only do the models not expect Antarctic Maximum Sea Ice Extent to drop away for several decades, there is also other science that indicates other factors greatly influence sea ice creation – it’s not just about temperatures as Nova wants you to believe.

Nova Cherry Picks Again

Strangely (or not given that Nova’s intent is to confuse you rather than educate you) Nova chooses a few selected years to compare against. The full set shows the maximum, whilst being close to a record, is really only remarkable for its late melt.

Antarctic Observations

Antarctic Observations

Poles Apart

Joanne talks about the media only showing one side of the argument – Ironic that she only gives half the picture. If you compare the images of the Antarctic and the Arctic, it’s obvious that the slight increase in Antarctic sea ice does not make up for the dramatic loss of ice in the Arctic.

Sept. 2013. The Antarctic has increased slightly but does not make up for the massive loss in Arctic ice. That contrast in 2012 was even more stark.

Sept. 2013. The Antarctic has increased slightly but does not make up for the massive loss in Arctic ice. That contrast in 2012 was even more stark. Source

DeJa Vu

Yes, we’ve been here before …

https://itsnotnova.wordpress.com/2012/09/20/arctic-vs-antarctic-ice/
https://itsnotnova.wordpress.com/2013/04/17/antarctica-joanne-nova-scratches-the-surface/
https://itsnotnova.wordpress.com/2012/10/12/psssst-ignore-the-artic-look-over-here-antarctic-sea-ice-again/

See you same time next year!

Nova misleads on Scafetta’s cycle of mistakes

October 12, 2013

Joanne Nova leaps at the chance to blame the sun for the recent warming. In the process she shoots her own foot on the Medieval Warm Period, then shoves it in her mouth on Climate Sensitivity. Oh, and the paper is just another example of curve fitting crap.

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Jo Cuts & Pastes to Cause Doubt

October 9, 2013

Joanne Nova has been unable to produce research of her own since joining the circus, but that doesn’t stop her from cutting and pasting other peoples work, and then drawing her own conclusion. This time Nova hasn’t even bothered to credit the original authors or provide a link to their work.

Sheesh.

Not much to report other than Nova claims the climate models don’t properly account for these things, but given that the authors themselves state that this is only affecting climate variability rather than long term trends, climate modellers could be forgiven for focussing on climate change rather than weather.

Jo confuses weather and climate once again.

It’s Water!

October 8, 2013

Joanne Nova continues her path of contradiction. Having claimed that it’s cooling, not warming, warming but it’s natural, the oceans, subterranean ocean vents, now she is claiming that atmospheric water vapour is the culprit.

Great! We can relax and ignore the several thousand previous papers confirming that CO2 traps heats, Nova has found the evidence and it’s published in a well-established science journal … or not.

Oops. Nope. It’s “published” in the Washington Times alongside ads for “#1 WORST Thing To Do When Eating CARBS” and “Going… Going… Gone! iPads for Under $40”.

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97% of Climate Scientists Say We’re to Blame

October 6, 2013

There have been several studies that looks at the scientific consensus and what they, the experts, have to say on climate change. A consistent message continues to emerge, and it has strengthened over time.

  • In 2004, Naomi Oreskes found that in a survey of 928 abstracts, none rejected the consensus. 75% fell into the first explicitly or implicitly accepting the consensus view; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate and gave no position.
  • In 2009, Doran & Zimmerman found that 97.4% of climate scientsts thought human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing global temperatures.
  • In 2010, Anderegg et al. found >97% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support anthropogenic climate change as outlined by the IPCC.
  • Most recently Cook et al. expanded on the number of papers examined and found that familiar 97% climate scientists agreement as determined by examining the content of their abstracts, and also by directly contacting the authors and asking them to self-rate their own work.

Nova’s not happy so decided to repost Monckton’s misinformation.

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Repetitive Watery Excuses

October 1, 2013

If history tells us anything it says that Joanne Nova fails to learn. Her latest attempt to discredit the science is a simple repeat of her past mistakes, only use ocean data to 700 meters, not 2,000 meters, cherry pick your start date and fail to understand how thousands of measurements reduces uncertainty. Let’s examine once again. (more…)