Since our previous post Joanne Nova & David Evans have updated her graphs to include the last six months of data, however they still have more work to do in order to be less deceptive. Jo/David plot the data to 2,000 meters in an odd way by only plotting the 700m-2,000m amount rather than the 0-2,000m amount. They also claim to be ignorant (and I agree) of any model forecast for the ocean down to 2,000 meters. If only they had read just a few more sentences of the paper they cite …
Model Predictions 0 – 700m
David’s cites this publication as the source of the model forecast. The exact paragraph is …
Figure 2 shows that the modeled increase of heat content in the past decade in the upper 750 m of the ocean is 6.0 +/- 0.6 (mean T SD) W year/m2, averaged over the surface of Earth, varying from 5.0 to 6.6 W year/m2 among five simulations.
From there, David uses Bob Tisdale’s conversion to arrive at the Joules/year figure.
0.6 W year/m2 = 0.68*10^22 Joules/year
To make things appear really small, David then converts this into a temp difference by dividing by the volume of water. We won’t bother with this step since it’s not necessary, introduces more error, and no publishing scientist performs it.
Predictions 0 – 2,000m
Nova says “If someone can find predictions to 2000m David can compare models to observations for that depth.”, however I consider this to be either lazy or ignorant. On the very same page of the report used for the 0-700m forecast, just a few sentences later, was the following paragraph.
The modeled heat gain of ~0.6 W/m2 per year for the upper 750 m of the ocean differs from the decadal mean planetary energy imbalance of ~0.75 W/m2 primarily because of heat storage at greater depths in the ocean. On average for the five simulations, 85% of the ocean heat storage occurred above 750 m, with the range from 78 to 91%. The mean heat gain below 750 m was ~0.11 W/m2.
Whilst this is not exactly to 2,000m, it’s worth comparing anyway since the expected warming below 2,000 is very small. The forecast for all of the ocean was 0.71 W/m2 (0.6 W/m2 to 750m + 0.11 W/m2 below 750m). Using Bobs formula this equates to …
0.71 W year/m2 = 0.81*10^22 Joules/year
So how does this model forecast compare against reality? Here’s the current latest data …
That’s right, currently the OHC from 0-2,000 meters matches the model forecast for ALL depths.
Of course, as Nova points out, there is uncertainty, but that works both ways, it could be better, or it could even be worse than Argo data reports.